Ike Update: Sept 10, 10am

Hurricane Ike Advisory #37Valid: 10:00 AM CDT Wednesday September 10, 2008
Current Status
At 10AM CDT, Hurricane Ike is near 23.9N/85.3W, or about 750 miles southeast of Matagorda Bay, TX. Maximum sustained winds are up to 90 mph. Movement is to the west-northwest at 8 mph. Satellite imagery indicates that Ike's center is in the process of wobbling around as the hurricane gets better organized.. This has resulted in a slightly slower and more northerly movement over the past few hours.
Changes From our Previous Forecast
The most significant change in this forecast is the increasing of the 58 mph and 74 mph wind radii. Previously, Ike's hurricane force winds were forecast to extend out to 50 miles from the center. Currently, the hurricane force winds are forecast to extend out to 85 miles northeast of the center.
Our Forecast
There are no changes to our track up until landfall early Saturday morning on this forecast. Once Ike moves ashore, it should be turning northward and slowing its forward speed as it tracks across east-central Texas past Austin Saturday afternoon and Waco on Sunday morning then very near the Dallas/Fort Worth area Sunday afternoon/evening.
Ike appears to be close to entering a phase of more rapid intensification this morning. We think that Ike will become a major Category 3 hurricane within the next 12-24 hours. Conditions beyond 48 hours will continue to be favorable for strengthening, and Ike is forecast to be an upper-end Category 3 hurricane by Friday as it approaches the mid Texas coast with winds of 125-130 mph and gusts over 150 mph.
Other Possibilities
The main concern remains the timing of the northwest turn prior to landfall. Any delay in this turn will increase the landfall threat farther southward to the Corpus Christi area. If the turn should occur a little earlier, the landfall threat increases along the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston area. We will not be very confident in the precise landfall point until within 12-24 hours of landfall once the turn begins on Friday.
Our next full advisory will be issued by 3PM CDT.
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert